The attack became politically explosive because responsibility was disputed even as the deaths were confirmed. Israel said Hezbollah had fired an Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket carrying roughly a 50-kilogram warhead toward a nearby military position and that it had either struck Majdal Shams deliberately or overshot its target. Hezbollah denied responsibility and claimed the deaths were caused by an Israeli Iron Dome interceptor. U.S. intelligence reportedly judged Hezbollah responsible, while weapons experts consulted by the Associated Press said the crater, shrapnel, and blast pattern were consistent with a rocket launched from Lebanon but could not establish intent conclusively. Human Rights Watch and other analysts likewise considered an accidental miss or mechanical failure plausible, noting that Hezbollah had launched multiple rockets toward the Mount Hermon area that day. The competing narratives turned a children's soccer field into the center of a dangerous regional confrontation: Israel retaliated with strikes in Lebanon and, on 30 July, killed senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, an operation that also killed three civilians and wounded about 80 people. Residents of Majdal Shams protested visits by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, rejected attempts to use the funeral for political messaging, and some explicitly opposed retaliation. In October 2024, Israel claimed that Hezbollah operative Khader Shahabiya was responsible for the strike; the broader question of culpability and intent remained contested.
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